TXN

What TXN’s Earnings Track Record Really Says

Texas Instruments has beaten analyst estimates in 6 of the last 8 reported quarters, a 75% beat rate, with an average earnings surprise of 8.9%. That headline consistency might suggest a clean positive drift after reports, but the average 5-day post-earnings move of 3.25% masks something more complicated: the direction of the beat has not reliably carried through to the direction of the stock.

Take the two most recent reports. On July 22, 2026, TXN delivered EPS of $2.14 against an estimate of $1.91, a 12.0% positive surprise. The stock fell 3.13% the next session and dropped 7.78% over the following five trading days. Three months earlier, on April 22, 2026, the company beat by 23.5% with actual EPS of $1.68 versus $1.36 estimated, and shares soared 19.43% the next day and 13.93% over the next five sessions. The contradiction is not limited to beats. On January 27, 2026, TXN missed by 1.6% with actual EPS of $1.27 versus an estimate of $1.29, yet the stock rose 9.94% the next day and 14.53% over the next five days. The October 21, 2025 miss of just 0.7% produced a 5.6% next-day decline and a 7.7% drop over five days. The average post-earnings drift may read “up,” but the path is event-dependent.

Options-Flow Dynamics Into the October 2026 Report

The next scheduled report is October 27, 2026 after the close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $2.42. That is a sequential step up from the $2.14 print in July and above the $1.68 reported in April, so the implied bar is materially higher. With the stock at $267.17 and the 50-day EMA sitting at $287.17, the shares are trading below a key intermediate-term average, while the RSI of 38.5 reflects weak but not oversold short-term momentum.

Options markets typically price in elevated implied volatility ahead of the event and then compress it after the release. Because the average 5-day post-earnings drift has historically been positive at 3.25%, directional premium can build in both calls and puts. Flow around semiconductors also tends to be macro-sensitive, so positioning into October 27 may reflect not only TXN-specific expectations but sector-wide rate and demand assumptions. Traders should distinguish between pre-event skew, which shows where the crowd is positioning, and the actual reaction function, which has shown little loyalty to the beat/miss label.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

Given the disconnect between surprise direction and price drift, a disciplined approach does not assume that a beat on October 27 will produce a sustained pop or that a miss guarantees selling. The historical record shows a 75% beat rate with an average 8.9% earnings surprise, yet the post-earnings reaction has reversed direction relative to the surprise at least twice in the last four reports. That means the catalyst is often priced differently than the headline result.

Watch three things. First, the 50-day EMA at $287.17, which currently sits above the $267.17 price and can act as a reference for whether the trend is extending or mean-reverting. Second, the magnitude of any initial gap versus the July and April reactions, since both reports produced double-digit next-day moves in opposite directions. Third, whether five-day follow-through confirms or contradicts the first-day gap, because the 3.25% average 5-day drift only matters if the post-event structure supports continuation. Frame position sizing around risk management, not around the consensus number alone.

For a deeper dive into how institutional analysts are positioning around the October 27 report, including detailed consensus breakdowns and post-event scenarios, look at the full institutional verdict on the ticker page.